Foreclosures, short sales and the end of time
December 23rd, 2007 Categories: San Diego county Real Estate News
This week brought some potentially good news for the San Diego real 
estate market when Realtytrak released their foreclosure statistics. Notice of defaults filings, the beginning of the foreclosure, were down 44% in the month of November versus October, while actual foreclosures were down 73%.
So is this a sign of transition to a more stable market or could it be a sign of lenders taking a less agressive approach to late paying homeowners and trying to work out a better payment plan. John Karevoll of Dataquik believes it is the latter.
“They are being temporarily less aggressive,” he said. “They have been severely criticized for not doing more to help homeowners work things out. If anything, this is probably just a pause. The numbers are going to probably snap back up.”
The consensus seems to be that the market should find it’s bottom sometime in the summer to late 2008. The number I am seeing most is approximately an 8% depereciation.
What our region needs is for the fed to increase the amount of money considered to be a conforming loan. Appproximately 67% of the homes purchased are above the conforming limit versus most of the country where 95% of the homes puschased are less than the confroming rate. There is some work going on to change this so stay tuned. How would this change effect the buying process?
Currently according to Bankrate.com the conforming 30 year fixed interest rate is 5.74% versus 6.68 for the Jumbo, over $417,000. On a $500,000 dollar loan, a change in the Federal guideline would save the home buyer approximately $300 month on their house payment.
I personally beleive it is a good time to be a buyer looking for a home. Just negotiate accordingly. Approaching the real estate market from an investor angle, I would proceed with caution. 
Keep in mind, in north county coastal, the average home price in 2000 was $386,194. In 2007 the average price $780,977 which is just over a 100% appreciation rate. You have a choice; either you earn the apprecaition or your landlord does, tax benefits and pride of ownership aside.
You decide.
