Archive for January, 2009
Hey San Diego, STOP renting!!!
January 19th, 2009 Categories: Real Estate News, San Diego County Fixer of the Week, San Diego County Triathlon Race Reports, San Diego County run routes, San Diego county Real Estate News, Triathlon Club of San Diego Race Reports
SAN DIEGO– You heard it here first. San Diego’s real estate market should find its bottom this summer and that sound you’ll be hearing is the market hitting the bottom. Now I know, you are reading this with some skepticism but don’t take my word for it.
First, let’s take a look at the big economic picture and see what two Stanford economists had to say on January 12th, 2009 in their piece titled, “The recession will be over sooner than you think”.
“A key source of the today’s economic weakness is uncertainty that led firms to postpone investment and hiring decisions. This column, by the authors whose model forecast the recession as far back as June 2008, report that the key measures of uncertainty have dropped so rapidly that they believe growth will resume by mid-2009.”
Then turning our attention locally, there was an article in the San Diego Union subtitled, “First-time buyers take advantage of foreclosure sales”. The headline of the article,”Home prices tumble 24% from 2007”, captures the attention of the reader better then the essence of the piece in my opinion.
Economist Christopher Thornberg, who predicted the bursting of the housing bubble long before many other analysts, was confident that this is the year housing prices finally hit bottom(emphasis mine). But he cautioned that it could be at least a couple of years before housing values begin rising again.
“It’s pretty clear that from the numbers we’re seeing, price declines are falling at a slower pace than a year ago, and this is good news, because you need to see a slowing decline before prices stop falling,” said Thornberg, of Beacon Economics.
In this article they made a few key points I have been speaking about for 
quite sometime. Mainly, I had always regarded the rent/buy relationship as the precursor to a recovery. Once home prices reached the point where the cost of ownership was near or equal to what it would cost rent, the decision becomes very easy and in many areas we are at that point.
Clairemont and Encinitas rent versus buy
Looking at two areas that seem to fit the first time buyer/triathlete lifestyle I choose Encinitas and Clairemont.
First I looked at 3 bedroom townhomes in Encinitas. Encinitas has the coastal community feel with the Rancho Santa Fe running trails nearby, easy 
access to the coast for riding and surfing and two great pools nearby at the Magdalene Ecke YMCA and the San Dieguito Boys and Girls club.
Next I looked at 3 and 4 bedroom single family homes around the canyons in Clairemont and the northern portion of Bay Park. While some of these homes can have amazing views, you also have access to Rose and Tecolote Canyons as well as Mission Bay for your workouts.
Using craigslist.com for my rental survey, the cost to rent a 3 bedroom condo in the Encinitas area is just under $2200 a month. Looking on the Sandicor MLS at homes for sale the average sales price in the Village Park area was $414,000 starting in the mid 300’s.
I then went to bankrate.com to use their mortgage calculator. I figured 3.5% down as required by FHA and calculated a the cost of a $400,000, 30 year fixed mortgage at 5%. The payment on this mortgage would be $2147.29. Now I would be remiss not to talk about HOA fees and property tax which would add approximately $600 a month, but on the flip side is the positive impact of being able to write of approximately $30,000 off your taxes!! Additionally, you are building equity on $400,000+ that only cost you roughly $14,000 to start with.
Now applying the same to single family homes in Clairemont, we find the 
average rental as described above to be $2415. Taking this figure and applying it towards a mortgage payment would qualify as a $450,000 mortgage. Applying the 3.5% for FHA as a down payment there currently are 16 homes listed on the MLS for sale and a few on some amazing lots.
As you can see we are at that point where buying, even with a small down payment, can be as much, or even less than renting.
Mortgage interest rates are more good news
Now in the above scenarios I used 5% as the interest rate as I am a strong believer in painting a realistic picture. The reality in some cases however are that rates have been as low 4.65%.
According to a CNNMoney.com post titled on 1/15/2009 titled, “MORTGAGES: Benchmark 30-Year Mortgage Falls Below 5% For First Time”, 
the AVERAGE, not the lowest, 30 year mortgage rate fell to 4.96%.
The national average rate on the 30-year loan fell to 4.96% in the week ending Jan. 15, down from 5.01% a week ago. That is the lowest on record. Freddie Mac began its rate survey in 1971. A year ago the loan averaged 5.69%.
If you are waiting for that elusive bottom to make your decision, you may not be waiting to much longer. Realize, the only way to truly know where the bottom lies is to be looking back while on the upswing.
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San Diego’s first time home buyers are the benefactors
January 16th, 2009 Categories: Real Estate News, San Diego County Fixer of the Week, San Diego county Real Estate News
SAN DIEGO– While the news for existing homeowners continues to be less than positive, the benefactors of the current real estate climate are definitely San Diego’s first time home buyers.
It was only in the last 5 years that an older generation of San Diegans was questioning how there children were ever going to afford to buy a home in San Diego. There was a younger generation that flowed out of the state due to the impact of the hosing expense as it related to their income. While I am sure there were many areas around the country that saw this influx, it seemed as though those with the active lifestyle were heading to areas like Bend, Oregon and the Boise area of Idaho. Additionally there were those that saw such an appreciation in their homes here that they just “cashed out”. They were able to take their profits from their home sale and buy a home outright or with very little financing elsewhere.
Confronted with a lack of buildable land, astronomical housing prices and newly tightened lending policies, those wanting a house of their own are caught in a cultural and economic shift dictating where and how they will live.
They can move to Riverside County, where prices are lower but the commute is longer. They can leave the state, as thousands have done.
Or they can stay, and downsize their housing expectations, analysts say.
It’s a change that is reshaping the nature of homeownership here, even as housing prices pull back from their historic highs.
Some first-time buyers are postponing or even abandoning their goal of owning a single-family home, said Steve Doyle, president of Brookfield Homes’ San Diego region. Houses “are quickly becoming unaffordable. They are not realistic, not for the teacher, not for the fireman, not for the nurse.”– San Diego Union Tribune, March 25, 2007
The Good News for San Diego First Time Buyers
Well, times have changed and while there certainly is some pain for existing homeowners, these changes have created opportunity for the first time buyer.
Firstly, interest rates are hitting historic lows and these are straight 30 year fixed loans. No teaser or adjustable rates.
Last week JPMorgan Chase & Co. was advertising 30-year mortgages as low as 4.75 percent on its Web site, Wells Fargo & Co. has an offer for 4.875 percent and Bank of America Corp. has rates at 5 percent(Delawareonline.com,1/9/2009). While these offers are for borrowers with excellent credit who put 20 percent down, 20% down is certainly more doable these days. Currently Bankrate.com is showing the 30 year fixed rate at 5.10% on average.
Secondly, the San Diego housing price depreciation of 30–50% has certainly kicked the door open for many. I ecently wrote about the change in the affordability rate from a low of 4% in 2005 to a 32% rate in second quarter in 2008. Unfortunately, this depreciation and other economic conditions are causing many homeowners to lose their homes as short sales and foreclosures still rule the market.
I have been spending some time in the Eastlake area of Chula Vista. Newer homes, as current as 2008, that were selling for close to a million dollars 
are selling for $500,000 or less. There are townhomes that are on the market for seemingly less than what it would cost to build them. This is not uncommon of many areas, such as North Park, Clairemont/Bay Park and Oceanside, where I am working with new homebuyers.
Thirdly, in many areas there is an overabundance of homes for sale. Again, many of these homes, as high as 80% in some areas, are short sales or foreclosures and are vacant.
I have clients that joke about the “beeping houses”. This is caused by the batteries going out in the smoke detectors of these vacant homes, so they just beep every couple of minutes and it seems like this is the case in every home. Because of this it is VERY IMPORTANT to work with a someone you can trust and to do very thorough inspections and investigations. In the case of bank owned homes. you as the buyer will generally not receive any disclosures as the “bank” never lived in the home and therefore has no disclosures to make. In this situation, a knock on the neighbor’s door may be a great idea. Also, short sales can be a very long and discouraging process. The thing to remember is the person, asset manager, is deciding 
to lose potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars and you will be the benefactor. Be patient. Continue to look at homes, but be prepared to wait with littel or no communication.
If you are considering a home purchase, it is a great time to be a first time buyer in San Diego. I work with many first time buyers and would welcome the opportunity to help you. Contact me, Brian Long, with any questions you may have.
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Upscale foreclosure opportunity in Rancho Santa Fe and Del Mar
January 8th, 2009 Categories: Real Estate News, San Diego County Fixer of the Week, San Diego County Triathlon Race Reports, San Diego county Real Estate News, What to do in San Diego
SAN DIEGO– In real estate there is the classic quote, “location, location, location”. Another is to “look for the worst house on the best street”. In these two homes, you have both of these coming into play.
The foreclosure opportunities that have been hitting the less prestigious areas of the county, have present these great opportunities in Rancho Santa Fe and in Del Mar.
At $1.1 million, this 3 bedroom 3 bath 2110 square foot Rancho Santa Fe home sitting on over two acres is the opportunity you have been waiting for. Last sold in 2005 for $1.8 million, it is perfect for the horse lover with stables and training arenas. For the triathlete, roll out your driveway and head east for Del Dios or Lake Wohlford loop or head west for some Torrey Pines repeats or a Rose Canyon Mission Bay loop. For your run workouts, you have the Rancho Santa Fe trails nearby as well as the lagoon run from BnL Bikes in Solana Beach. Dog lover? 
Head to the San Dieguito river mouth and let your dog get his “play” on with other dogs as they romp around at north county’s only dog beach.
- Looking for a flip/ remodel/ project opportunity then this 3 bedroom 3 bath house on Highland in Del Mar is calling your name. Now listed at $699,000 it last sold in 2004 for $1,010,000. While the last owner may have had vision, you can see as illustrated in the two photos, they took a turn for the worse.
For the triathlete, many of the same training opportunities exist, so save some money and bring your vision and your contractor.
If you would like more information on either of these properties please follow this link and click on more details.
If you would like to view either of these properties, contact me at 760–415–3329 or at brianalong@msn.com.
Images and information from SANDICOR MLS.
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Bigotry in Bressi Ranch?
January 6th, 2009 Categories: Real Estate News, San Diego County Community News
CARLSBAD– Bigot; One strongly loyal to one’s own social group, and irrationally and prejudicially intolerant or disdainful of others.
In today’s North County Times is an article pertaining to the purchase of a home by TERI Inc of Oceanside in the Bressi Ranch community of Carlsbad.
TERI (Training, Education & Research Institute) is a private, non-profit agency serving the needs of children and adults with autism and other developmental and learning disabilities, and their families. Through programs that enrich our clients lives and focus on the potential in all of us, we are able to provide families with supports throughout their child’s lifespan. We are extremely proud of the work we do and invite you to learn more throughout this site, or schedule a time to visit our programs.
Now the purchase of the home is not a worthy a topic for my blog. It is the reaction from numerous residence that prompted this.
Bressi Ranch is a new community southeast of Palomar McClellan Airport and was built at the height of the market on top of what was Carlsbad last tomato farm. It has been most newsworthy for the repossesion of Magnolia Estates, the collapse of Barratt America the Carlsbad builder, a plane crash and the model home auction where few if any homes sold. Additionally, it is believed to be the only community in the nation where the builder imposed a “transfer fee” to fund the builder’s charity. So each time a home sells, there is a half percent fee collected that is given to charity. Back in March I did a blog post and quoted the executive director Matt Coleman.
“Anyone who can afford a home ought to kick down a few crumbs to a homeless person,” said Coleman. “Lennar, from a social level, really believes that those who have the ability to give back should give back.”– Copyright 2006, Gale Group, Kate Berry
Well, this has changed.
Last night there were at least 120 Bressi Ranch residents at a community meeting attended by two Carlsbad city council members. The gathering was described as well beyond standing room only with overflow out the doors. To the credit of the organizers, they did extend an invitation to TERI to attend the meeting, which it seems TERI wisely avoided.
It seems as though the prevailing sentiment of the crowd was archaic at best, bigoted at worse, and certainly not that of what I would expect from a group of well rounded and educated citizens.
Statements made ranged from fear that home residence would escape and hurt neighborhood children or they would engage in inappropriate behavior in public. But when one resident, whom has a 4 year old son with autism, tried to speak, she was drowned out and told she did not have a good understanding of how the facility would impact their community. Imagine telling someone who lives with autism everyday that they do not “get it”!!
Well the purchase of the home was actually very beneficial to their community from a real estate 
stand point. Looking back to September the average square footage price currently stands at $233.76 while the TERI home closed at $999,999 which is $287.36. This represents the highest square footage price in the neighborhood. Additionally this home had been on the market in excess of six months when TERI came along.
I know this group does not represent the feelings and compassion of the citizenry of Bressi Ranchand and they certainly do not represent that of Carlsbad. It amazes me that this type of behavior and thinking exist from a group of people that truly have so much to be thankful for.
The mind of the superior man is conversant with righteousness; the mind of the mean man is conversant with gain– Confucius
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Triathlon Club of San Diego the best value in triathlon
January 2nd, 2009 Categories: Aquathlon and Duathlon Race Reports, San Diego County Triathlon Race Reports, Triathlon Club of San Diego Race Reports, What to do in San Diego
SAN DIEGO– Over the last couple weeks there have been articles published regarding the impact of the economy on triathlon. While I think these articles are a bit premature I do agree that the triathlon community is heavy on white collar workers.
A article written by Pete Wilson for USA Triathlon states that, “It helps that the Ironman competitors have an average income of $161,000, according to WTC research”. In our local paper, the San Diego Union Tribune, Triathlete Magazine founder, had a higher number.
Industry sources say there are multiple reasons why the multi-sport is faring well. Demographics play a part. Duke said the average household income of Triathlete subscribers is $177,000.
“I don’t think they’re the people getting laid off. They’re the people laying off,” he said.– www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20081212
So where is the best value in triathlon whether your salary is five figures or seven? Easy, it is the Triathlon Club of San Diego.
With the current membership fee of $60 annually, not including the discounts for family or military membership, I promise you you will get back your money many times over.
TCSD holds a winter/ spring race duathlon series sponsored by RUNJUNK.com. This series of 5 races rotates throughout San Diego and even includes one off-road race held at Mission Trails regional park. In the summer there is the Aquathlon race series that takes place once a month at La Jolla shores. This race series, sponsored by Kashi, is a 1200 meter ocean swim followed by a 3 mile two loop run from the La Jolla Shores hotel to the Scripps pier. Then, staying true to the club name are the 9 club triathlons sponsored by San Diego Running Institute that take place March through November. Early in the year TCSD is on Fiesta Island and then finishes the year in the very gracious city of Coronado.
Now just being able to come and race 19 times a year for $60 represents a helluva value, but TCSD doesn’t stop there. After the races you will find fresh fruit, bakery goods and at times fresh breakfast burritos, breakfast croissant sandwiches or, when it is really chilly, Denise Pitre and crew breakout the fresh oatmeal and accompaniments.
The aquathlons however go even further. After the race you will find the most amazing Italian feast made up of 45–60 pizzas, greek, ceasar and apple and walnut salad, garlic bread, munchies and homemade dessert made by club member Elizabeth Daubner. Additionally, there is a raffle and two pair of ZOOT running shoes as well as a two ZOOT fusion suits are given to the winner. All of this at no additional cost!!!
If that isn’t enough for you, TCSD meets one a month at either Road Runner Sports or Coastal Sports and Wellness. To make sure everyone no one leaves hungry, Chipotle, provides us with burritos and chips and salsa. But what really sets these meetings apart are the speakers and raffle.
TCSD has hosted so many great speakers including Kate Major, Chrissie Wellington, Normann Stadler, Chris McCormack, Michelie Jones, Dean Karnazes, Mirinda Carfrae and so many others. The January 2009 meeting will feature Craig Alexander and Joe Friel of Triathlete Training Bible and 
Training Peaks coaching will be speaking and holding clinics in March.
The monthly raffle is second to none and typically has a value in excess of $1500. XTERRA wetsuits, Rudy Project helmets and glasses, Beaker Concept products, and certificates ranging from $20 to $100 toNytro, Hi-Tech Bikes, Moment Cycle Sports and BnL Bike and Sports, free massage certificates from ReHab United and ART certificates from University City Physical Therapy. FREE!!!!
Now let’s assume you are still not seeing the value. Let’s see, you gotten to race 19 times. You were fed at least 30 meals, potentially won at least $100 in schwag and potentially more than that, but you still are holding tight to that $60. Well there’s more.
All those tri-shops mentioned offer 10–15% discounts to members and have member only sales. Rudy Project offers our members 40% discounts as does Beaker Concepts. There are discounts on races from local race director KOZ enterprises producer of the San Diego Triathlon Series and more. If you purchase a bike this could equate to $150 to $800 savings.
Want more? Triathlon Club of San Diego has beginner programs, coaching clincs, their own swim program, ocean swims 5 times a week March through October, track workouts in north county and University City, group rides, social events, the famous La Jolla Cove Friday night potluck swim and MORE!!!
Clearly the best value in triathlon and the best club in the country!! You HAVE TO join today!!
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