San Diego home prices for first half 2008 vs. 2009
July 16th, 2009 Categories: Real Estate News, San Diego County Community News, San Diego county Real Estate News
SAN DIEGO- Today’s Union Tribune, which I am subscriber to, trumpeted the continued rise in San 
Diego county median home prices. This is the third month in a row that the median home price in San Diego county has increased. We are looking at an increase of approximately 12% from our January low of $280,000. The current median home price for San Diego county is now $314,250.
Now of late I have found myself a bit bitter to alot of the current financial news and negativity is not my nature. So while I wish I could be a cheerleader regarding this positive news, I still have to be honest with you and myself and my belief is this is still a market under the influence of the moratoriums and that continues to be skeleton in the closet.
However, on the positive side, the real good news is that this is still a great time for renters to stop buying real estate for their landlord and instead invest in themselves. With FHA 
requirements at only 3.5% down, the continuation of low interest rates and the tax credits, these combined with the affordable housing prices are the perfect storm.
Using the mortgage calculator from bankrate.com, we see that a $250,000 mortgage at 5.25% including property tax would set you back approximately $1630.00 a month. This also provides you with a $19,500 write off on your income tax which lessen the true value of your monthly obligation. Purchasing the median San Diego home would set you back just under $2000.00 a month. You would need approximately $16,000 to purchase the median San Diego home using FHA of which you would see $8,000.00 come back to you as a first time buyer. Stop renting!!!
A deeper look at the data released, comparing the first half of 20009 with 2008, shows us only one area of San Diego is actually in positive territory and that is San Carlos at 1.4% while the worst performing area is Logan Heights at 47.7%. However, I said I was going to try to turn my 
frown upside down, and the positive spin for Logan Heights home sales is that they have tripled from 56 homes in the first half of 2008 to 170 for 2009!!! Not bad at all.
The data also showed that our market, as illustrated by this chart and the one below, is being driven by the lower priced market and this is not just because, duh, home prices are lower. There definitely a relationship between median home price and increase in home sales.
Sean O’Toole, founder of ForeclosureRadar.com, said there now is a shortage of entry-level housing. There also is a growing perception among buyers that the slumping housing market has reached bottom and that prices won’t get lower, he added.
“That is having a positive impact on prices,” he said. “Pretty much everything that comes up at the bottom end sells immediately.” -www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/jul/15
East county, which had the lowest median price at $245,000 had the second highest increase in number of home sold with a 43% increase. On the other end, North San Diego County coastal, which had the highest median price at $380,000 remained flat in home sales with only a 3% 
increase.
My take on the market at this point is the market will remain flat from this point. In order to maintain this stability, knowing there is a boat load of distressed properties not yet on the market, will be the continuation of these historically low interest rates as well as incentives such as the tax credit. There is a continuing strong appetite for San Diego properties at these price points and it is high demand that is propping up our market.
If we lose the incentives for buyers that currently exist in our market we could easily see a pricing decline approaching or surpassing that $280,000 median price we saw in January. As I wrote in this post, there are some artificial elements influencing our current market. If we lose the incentives, then the banks fight back on the moratoriums and they decide they need to clear these distressed properties, we could see this perfect storm working in the reverse.
But the improving market could be dealt a setback if the many homes now in the foreclosure pipeline end up being taken back by lenders. A voluntary moratorium by banks has temporarily slowed the foreclosure rate, but many borrowers remain behind on their mortgage payments.
“The banks could pull the plug at any time,” said Dave McDonald, government affairs chairman for the San Diego County chapter of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers.
“We know we are still in a deep recession,” LePage said. “We don’t know when we are pulling out of it. We know more foreclosures are coming.”-www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/jul/16
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n diego first time buyers,san diego mortgage calculator,san diego short sales,carlsbad beach cottages,triathlon club of san diego,san diego real estate market foreclosed homes short sale carlsbad beach cottages brian long realtor
“this is still a market under the influence of the moratoriums and that continues to be skeleton in the closet”
Nice work. Your opinion isn’t pessimistic rather it’s realistic. When the California moratorium expires, expect more inventory. The question will be “Is there pent-up demand to meet that increased inventory?”
I think the demand is there to hold prices steady.
[...] market afloat. On July 16th, I wrote about the importance of current interest rate levels to the San Diego real estate market and to San Diego first time buyers. My take on the market at this point is the market will remain [...]
Hi Brian,
This is Dave McDonald…was quoted in the above article. Go to macplan.blogspot.com for my blog. There is good info there for you to include on your site.
Dave
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