Archive for November, 2009
Megan’s law maps are just one tool to use
November 27th, 2009 Categories: Real Estate News
SAN DIEGO- This morning I read an article in the San Diego Union Tribune regarding the tracking of sexual offenders and while this is the day after Thanksgiving, I still have felt compelled to share my experience on this topic as it is very important to the real estate transaction and the 
community.
Megan’s Law is the name given to a group of laws within the US that govern information given to communities regarding sex offenders. The original Megan’s Law was named for Megan Kanka a 7 year old New Jersey girl that was kidnapped, raped and murdered by a repeat sex offender who had moved in across the street from her home. The New Jersey legislature passed Megan’s Law in 1994 which required that communities be warned when a sex offender moves. In 1996, Megan’s Law was added to the federal Jacob Wetterling Crimes Against Children’s Act which then required all states to notify communities when a sex offender was released into their community. California has required sex offenders to register with the state since 1947!!
So this article spoke to the difficulties of keeping tabs on sexual offenders who are out on parole and back in society. It is the lack of reliable information that has been a hindrance for me in the real estate transaction. IN MY OPINION, the information is so flawed that you can not use it in the decision making process. We have “Megan’s Law” disclosure in at least two forms notifying clients of how and why they may want to research this topic and then it comes up again in the Natural Hazards Disclosures provide during the transaction. There has been some talk of including a photomap in this disclosure packages along with the text disclosure, but again it does not seem to be reliable information so I think it is wise that companies have stayed away from this. I often tell my clients that the single biggest flaw in the system is we have to rely on the convicted offender to report their movement which often times goes against their wishes.
Recently I have been involved in two transactions where the unreliability of the current system has come up. In one situation it has had a negative effect on a client’s home purchase and on the other, the flawed information could have caused my clients to make an uninformed decision.
In the first one, I represented both the buyer and seller of a home. The seller was relocating and the buyers were a great growing family with children. Several months after the close of escrow I received a frantic and upsetting phone call from the buyer regarding the vacant house across the street. It seems the owner had been in incarcerated for sex crimes. I do not have personal knowledge of the charges but was told that it was distribution of child porn. The reason for the 
call was he was due to be released and moving back home in the next day or two and they were just finding out this information from the neighbors!!! There was never any disclosure on the seller’s part who had lived there and was friends with the homeowner during the arrest and trial phase. Ultimately, I am told, there was a settlement reached between the two parties reagarding the non disclosure, but in he current real estate market the family was financially stuck without the ability to sell and move. During the first few days of this news, I worked with the family on things to investigate with the local police department as there is a school nearby. The wife at one point was told, “just don’t let your kids play in the front yard” as a solution from the local police department staff.
The apparent flaw in the system here is, as of this writing, this person is still not on the regional sex offenders map, pictured at the top of this post. So unless you are one of the few that know of this person’s history there is no disclosure. As a real estate agent with this past knowledge, the disclosure on my part would most likely have to be none. Without direct knowledge that this individual is suppose to report his location as a requirement of his release I could be subject to a lawsuit ranging from slander, interfering with a real estate transaction or more if I were to disclose there is a sex offender in the neighborhood. There would be great consultation with our attorneys if I ever have another transaction in the area, but I have been in a similar situation, so have a pretty good idea what I would be told.
In a more current example, I was working with a family on purchasing a home. We had an offer on a property that was countered much higher but my clients were still considering the property when a new home came on the market. We went and looked at this new home, placed an offer on the property that was accepted and opened escrow. A few days later agent #1 called to see if there was any interest in the initial home and I told him we were in contract on this new home. He made reference to a sex offender near home #2 and that I should make my clients aware of this as it may make them reconsider this home and come back to his listing.
I was already aware if this situation and had discussed it with my clients. The flaw in this situation was that while the map showed an offender registered within a half mile of the home, if 
one clicked on the identifying tab, the pop up with all the information showed that this person was in violation of his parole. His violation was that he no longer lived there and had not report his new location yet the indicator stilled showed this initial location.
So the bottom line here is that we need to have these systems in place and with new technologies become less reliant on the criminal to help us keep tabs on them. I will leave that solutions to others more qualified than I on what it should be. Unfortunately, one such attempt with the passing of Propostion 83 has officials saying we are now less safe and the provisions have created a homeless situation among sex offenders.
For you, the client, I strongly suggest using the San Diego sex offenders website as one part of a multipronged approach. Neighbors are a GREAT source of information especially this type. Go knock on a couple doors or if anyone is outside speak to them. They know the neighborhood and are often more than willing to share the good, the bad and the ugly with you. Having said this though, make sure any real negative comments are verified with at least one other source.
Lastly, there are steps you ca
n take to keep from either you, the single women, or your children from becoming victims. Learn and implement them.
“Prevention is everything,” Arlington said. “Ninety percent of self-defense is awareness – knowing who a stranger is, what kinds of lures they can use on children and where to go if they’re in a bad situation. There are a lot of things that kids just don’t understand.”- Tracie Arlington San Diego children self defense teacher from sdnn.com
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What is shadow inventory and does it exist
November 20th, 2009 Categories: Real Estate News
SAN DIEGO- I had a client earlier this year that kept holding out for the release of the shadow 
inventory another REALTOR told him existed. They said that the banks were holding back foreclosed homes hoping for a better market to release them into, thus creating what became called shadow inventory.
The reason for his procrastination was that the banks could only hold on to these properties for so long and then they would have to release them losing on their gamble. The subsequent release of all these foreclosed home would flood the market and cause prices to tumble. The kicker, and I swear this is not embellished at all, was that he believed the first wave was going to hit April 1. I asked him if he ever really thought about the significance of the date, April Fools Day, and that he may want to base his buying strategy on a more accepted process, like looking at the sold market and judging homes based on that information. Needless to say, I moved on and as of four weeks ago this well qualified buyer still has not pulled the trigger.
Today while walking my dog I ran across a neighbor who also is in the business and the topic of “shadow inventory” came up. Her belief is that there really is a surplus of homes the banks are holding back hoping to create a better market.
Today it was reported that the California median home price is at its highest in approximately a year and the National Association of REALTOR’s economist predicts a home value increase of 4% in 2010. Could the banks plan be coming together?
ForeclosureRadar.com announced the results of a study last month that essentially moved all of this to the urban legend category.
Results from their study show bank’s inventory of foreclosed homes peaked in September of 2008 at 155,269 homes. Since that time this inventory has shrunk by approximately 41% or 4.77 months of inventory. Remember anything under 6 months is considered a seller’s market, so they are operating under favorable terms to get these homes on the market now. Additionally, I am seeing about 10% decrease in new listings in most areas I cover, so the competition is decreasing.
The numbers in this report specific to San Diego county were consistent with a 41% decrease as the number of homes in inventory fell to 914 down from 1552.
The report said California has 4.77 months of repossessed inventory to sell and it takes them seven months to repair, list and sell a foreclosed home. Taken together, these statistics indicate that banks are selling foreclosed houses as fast as they can.
"Bottom line —- there is no ’shadow’ inventory of bank-owned homes being intentionally withheld from the market," the report said.- www.nctimes.com
Happy house hunting.
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First time buyers rise 16% in 2009
November 16th, 2009 Categories: Real Estate News
SAN DIEGO- While this should not be a surprise to anyone who reads some form of media with current economic content it’s good to hear none the less. First time home buyer’s accounted for 47% of US home sales up from 41% in the previous years survey.
The National Association of Realtors are wrapping up their annual conference today in San Diego and it was there that they announced the results of their survey which covered from July 2008 to June 2009.
The typical first time buyer had a median age of 30 with a reported median income of $61,600. Additionally, the typical first-time buyer paid $156,000 for their home, about $9,000 less than in the Realtors’ 2008 survey.
Another demographic increasing in home ownership numbers are single women who now represent about 22% of home buyers while single men represent about 10% of home buyers.
Factors leading to the increase include the following demographic trends: better education, more women working and seeking financial independence, and young women delaying marriage.
Also, women have significantly increased their purchasing power. They own and operate 38 percent of all businesses in America and make up nearly 40 percent of all business school graduates. More immediately, historically low interest rates, affordable home prices, ample housing supply and the first-time homebuyer tax credit are fueling the increase of single women homebuyers.- noozhawk.com
Hey ladies… NICE JOB!!! As a father of two daughters I think this is awesome.
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Why you still need me.
November 12th, 2009 Categories: Real Estate News
San Diego- I am working on a new real estate project and there has been some debate with 
fellow REALTORs about how much information I should make available to potential clients that come to my website. Additionally, there are a couple different schools of thought on having “viewers” providing personal information prior to being granted access to listings or web tools.
Me, I make my site open to all and provide as much information as I can. I understand the philosophy that in the numbers game of leads, if someone provides you personal information to access your site tools, they are a SERIOUS lead. However, I’m a nice guy and realize, 99% of what I have to offer is available somewhere else (oh but that 1%!!) and most people are willing to web surf to get what they are after on their terms.
Additionally, I remember when the vaults were being pried open to release more data that used to be held dear, accessed only by the REALTOR establishment. The belief being, this data allowed us to have careers and if it were made public it was the beginning of the end. When the founders of Zillow popped on the scene, they were going to pound in the death nail to real estate as we knew it in the same way they did to the travel industry with EXPEDIA.com. The guys went on a pretty big campaign to make sure we REALTORs knew they were not coming to slay the dragon but saw as a partner to their business and we could ride together into financial bliss. What was good for Zillow was good for REALTORs.
This headline from an article on SEEKINGALPHA.com back in December of 2007 is an example of the times: ZILLOW to REALTORs: Really we’re not going to eat your lunch.
Well it has been three years and I think Mr. Frink hit the nail on the head and today I was reminded that I am the expert of the information. More importantly however is, YOU STILL NEED ME!!!
I have a home in escrow that will be closing in a couple weeks. It is a great home, for a wonderful family and I suggested they offer full price if they really wanted the home. Being the first day the home was on the market some would consider this heresy, but it really is an ideal home for them and it passed an FHA appraisal with flying colors and there were multiple offers on the property.
So this morning, while reviewing some web tools I am currently using, I typed the address into a home valuation tool I have been using. I about fell off my swiss ball when the value came up as $440,000!! OMG, what would my clients think if they saw this. I would be skinned alive.
I quickly typed in Zillow to see what the Zestimate would be, pictured above, and it came in at $505,000. PHEW, I knew I wasn’t crazy and this is not a plug for Zillow as you will see they have their own issues in this same neighborhood. What it made me realize is that I am the expert. I am given the trust of my clients to analyze the data not only on my computer screen, but also on the ground and to see things no computer model will ever pick up. Compare the two screen captures to see not only the disparity in the value of the subject home, $63,000, but also all the surrounding homes.
If you look at the fourth house in a counterclockwise direction here is shows a value of $502,000, click on the photo to expand, while Zillow shows it as $620,000. In this situation the above program is much more accurate than, by about $100,000, than Zillow.
It feels good to be needed.
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Dude, where’s my house?
November 11th, 2009 Categories: Real Estate News
Ireland- I, like many fellow homeowners, have lost value in my home, however I have not LOST my home.
This morning I stumbled on to the story of an Irish filmmaker whose home was demolished while he was away living in New Zealand. The now cleared land was then turned into a septic system and parking lot as infrastructure for a new hotel!!
Neville Presho, returned to the Tory Island off Ireland’s west coast when he was notified that there had been a fire that caused damaged to his 6 bedroom home. Arriving by ferry, he described how he searched in vain for the home, knowing where it should be but in its “place stood a septic tank and parking lot for Doohan’s newly built 12-room hotel, which remains the only one today on Tory.”- Shawn Pogatchnik, ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER
What brought this story to the worldwide stage was the fact the when Police tried to investigate the loss of the home they received little or no cooperation from the residence of the island an event that police said should have been oblivious to everyone.
Presho has won a lawsuit filed in relation to the disappearing house, but the award of $69,000US is less than one fifth the value of the average home cost.
"You could build a really nice chicken coop with that sort of money," he quipped, "but you’d have no money left over to buy the chickens."- the story
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First time home buyer tax credit extension signed by the President
November 6th, 2009 Categories: Real Estate News, San Diego County Fixer of the Week, San Diego county Real Estate News
SAN DIEGO- It was just announced the President Obama has signed the bill that includes the 
extension and changes to the first time home buyer tax credit.
The first time home buyer tax credit extension allows a buyer to enter an agreement with a seller by April 30, 2010 and close on the house by the end of June 30, 2010. First time home buyers are defined as anyone who has not owned a home for the past 3 years. First time home buyers will get an $8,000 tax credit, similar to the tax credit for much of 2009. Other home buyers, who have owned their current home for at least five years, are eligible for a $6,500 tax credit.
Income limitations have been increased to $125,000 for single filers and $225,000 for joint filers. The purchase price of the home must be less than $800,000. The estimated loss in tax revenue to the government comes to $10.8 billion. – creditunionsonline.com
While there was some speculation over whether the first time home buyer’s tax credit would be extended or not, I never waivered in my belief that it was coming. With banks that have used or are still using stimulus money handing out huge bonuses, there was no way the American public was going to lose this. If so, there would have been a march on Congress with pitchforks and torches!!
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Aviara detached loft home for sale @ $475,000
November 5th, 2009 Categories: Real Estate News, San Diego county Real Estate News, San Diego homes for sale
CARLSBAD- Here’s your chance to own a wonderful single level loft home in the Aviara community of Carlsbad listed by Windemere Properties. This home, located at 1790 Blackbird in the Avocet is
definitely worth a look.
At approximately 2244 square feet, this 3 bedroom 3 bath home is approximately boasts an outstanding location for all, but especially for the family. The location in across from Aviara Oaks elementary and middle school and is just around the corner from shopping, restaurants, the movie theatre and the new Carlsbad Dove library.
The home itself features many desirable features such as cathedral style ceilings, crown molding, french doors leading to the LARGE back yard, a huge loft area that could accommodate both an office and game/recreation area while the master is spacious and private with a walk in closet complete with a organizer system. Again this home is a single level.
Check out more about the home below and if you would like to schedule a showing I can be reached at 760.415.3329.
Square footage estimate taken from the SANDICOR MLS. Brian Long’s DRE license number is 01368841
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